Wednesday, December 5, 2007

When should we believe Intelligence Reports?

I don't know about you, but when I hear that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is commending our intelligence reports, I begin to feel a bit queasy.

I hope that the recent reports on the Iranian nuclear program are accurate, but of course we all are a bit skeptical in the wake of the WMD debacle. The report says Iran stopped all signs of its covert nuclear weapons program in 2003.

Two things strike me about this report. First, 2003 is an interesting time. Could there be a Libya-effect going on in Iran? Did the Iraq invasion send the same message to Iran as it did to Muammar al-Gaddafi, that the US is serious under a Bush adminstration about its claims to follow through on promises against nuclear proliferation. And if so, isn't that tantamount to an admission, at least on some level, to effective foreign policy from the Bush White House?

Second, isn't the meaning of "covert" programs that they are ideally hidden from foreign intelligence and subsequently their reports? Could Iran be learning from the Soviets and actually creating a subterfuge to win international support while at the same time still developing those arms, which if discovered would encourage international sanctions?

We as a nation may have our doubts about "intelligence reports," but I certainly have my doubts about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and anything he claims as a victory.

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