McCain-Huckabee, McCain-Thompson

Monday David Broder, the unofficial Dean of the Washington press corps, wrote a piece encouraging Republicans to consider a McCain-Huckabee ticket for 2008. While I have talked privately to many about this exact ticket, and believe McCain-Huckabee could go a long way to securing a GOP hold on the Whitehouse for the next 16 years, I think it is probably not as a likely as a McCain-Thompson ticket.

Let me explain my logic and unfurl a scenario for McCain to bring back the sometimes misinformed and misled Republican base. First, Iowa and New Hampshire will likely split the vote and possibly give Huckabee and McCain the first two primaries. Huckabee is currently leading in Iowa polls and McCain just received the endorsement of the largest paper in New Hampshire with committed press every week from here on in. Next up is Michigan and Nevada, which could result in a Romney and Giuliani split before we head to the southern states and the conservative base.

It will be at this point, prior to the South Carolina and Nevada primary on January 19th, that I believe Fred Thompson will officially close his “lazy” campaign and call for his supporters to back John McCain, thus creating a 4-way race with only one conservative candidate.

For all the critics who say McCain is not conservative, you might need to check his record. McCain may be a maverick against the establishment and the neo-cons, but his 24-year voting record has always been consistently conservative on taxes, spending, and the role of government both domestically and abroad. In fact, the only reason he did not back Bush’s initial tax plan was because of its lack of spending controls which ended up costing the GOP the congressional majority in 2006.

As a matter of fact, if you go back and look at the record of when McCain broke from the ranks and criticized the Republican leadership, it was over the handling of the Iraq war in 2003 and the lack of spending restraints in the Bush tax bill (a view also shared by Alan Greenspan). His contentious Campaign Finance bill (McCain-Feingold-Thompson, as in Fred) was, in the end, supported by the Bush administration.

Back to the race at hand, the first thing going in McCain’s favor is the lack of an “establishment candidate.” The money players in the GOP don’t really have a strong option, so Giuliani and Romney have tried to vie for this spot. Both, however, have glaring weaknesses and problems fitting in on a myriad of high-profile issues such as abortion, limited government, and taxes. Not to mention, neither has the experience necessary to be considered a strong candidate to lead on foreign policy. Now, you might say as to that last point, neither did George W. in 1999 and 2000, but you have to remember that his candidacy was as much about his “team” as it was about him. Think back to the rumors circulated early that veteran statesman Dick Cheney and former President George H.W. Bush were calling in old allies to bring together a resurgence of the Ford administration from the late 70s. That’s just not the case with Giuliani or Romney.

Also consider that Thompson is a McCain supporter and always has been. He was heavily involved in McCain ’00 and agrees with the Arizona Senator on most issues including the most contentious issues of Campaign Finance Reform and Comprehensive Immigration. Although Thompson has spoken the rhetoric against so-called amnesty, he too was for the bill's provisions for a border security plan coupled with an identification program for the existing 12 million illegal aliens.

Second, Thompson does not have the desire to be President, or at least does not desire putting in the effort to run a national campaign. That was illustrated clearly in a recent NY Times article which states that the former Senator held only one retail campaign event last week. At this event he had supporters standing in a crowded BBQ restaurant for several hours only to give a 30-minute speech before leaving early.

Thompson is a nice guy and is liked by many Washington insiders, but his lack of (or perceived lack of) the drive and determination to fight for votes puts in play many questions about his ability to work 24/7 for our country while in office. However, a cushy Vice-President role is just the spot for Thompson and his supporters, which would turn the tide for McCain in the south and give conservatives a reason to vote against Rudy or Mitt.